Here’s a reality check: even the best opera production in the world is a financial disaster if nobody buys tickets. And in 2026, the days of programming a season and hoping for the best are well and truly over. Australian opera companies are increasingly turning to data and analytics to understand their audiences — and it’s changing how decisions get made.

I know, I know. “Data analytics” sounds about as romantic as a spreadsheet. But stay with me, because this stuff is genuinely shaping what you see on stage and what you pay for your seat.

The shift in ticketing

Dynamic pricing isn’t new — airlines have done it forever, and sports teams adopted it years ago. But opera has been slower to move, partly because the audience skews older and partly because there’s a cultural resistance to treating art like a commodity.

That’s changing. Opera Australia has been experimenting with demand-based pricing models for the past two seasons, adjusting ticket prices based on real-time sales data, day of the week, and historical performance of similar repertoire. The results have been encouraging: higher overall attendance without alienating the regular subscribers who form the financial backbone of the company.

It’s a delicate balance. Price tickets too aggressively and you risk empty houses on slow nights. Discount too heavily and you train audiences to wait for bargains. The companies that are getting this right are the ones investing in proper analysis, not just gut feel.

Understanding who’s in the audience

Beyond pricing, the more interesting development is in audience segmentation. Companies are starting to build detailed pictures of who attends, what they respond to, and — crucially — who’s not coming and why.

Queensland Opera has done particularly smart work here. They partnered with a Brisbane-based AI consultants Brisbane firm that helped them analyse ticket purchasing patterns, email engagement data, and post-show survey responses. What they found wasn’t always comfortable. Their audience was aging faster than the general population. First-time attendees had a terrible return rate. And their marketing spend was overwhelmingly reaching people who were already going to buy tickets anyway.

That kind of insight stings, but it’s exactly what you need to make better decisions.

Programming by the numbers?

This is where it gets philosophically tricky. If data tells you that Puccini sells and contemporary Australian work doesn’t, do you just programme Puccini forever?

Obviously not. And to their credit, the companies I’ve spoken to are clear that data informs decisions — it doesn’t make them. The artistic director still picks the season. But knowing that a new Australian opera is going to be a harder sell means you can plan your marketing differently, pair it with something popular, or target specific audience segments who are more likely to take a chance.

Melbourne Opera used this approach last season when they programmed a rarely performed Janáček alongside their crowd-pleasing Verdi. By targeting their marketing for the Janáček specifically at audiences who’d attended their previous Czech repertoire and at university music departments, they managed a respectable 78% house. Without that targeted approach, their marketing director told me, they’d have been looking at maybe 55%.

The subscription question

Subscriptions have been the financial foundation of opera companies for decades. Buy a package, commit to the season, get your favourite seats. But subscription numbers have been declining across the performing arts sector since before COVID, and the pandemic accelerated the trend.

Data is helping companies rethink the model. Some are moving toward flexible subscriptions — pick three from six, for example — based on research showing that commitment-phobic younger audiences will spend more overall if they feel less locked in. Others are using purchase history to create personalised recommendations: “You loved La Bohème last year? You might enjoy Manon Lescaut this season.”

It sounds like Netflix for opera, and honestly, the comparison isn’t far off.

Privacy and the ick factor

Let’s address the elephant: some people find this creepy. The idea that an opera company is tracking your behaviour and using algorithms to target you feels at odds with the experience of sitting in a beautiful theatre and being moved by music.

I get that. But here’s the thing — every arts organisation has always tried to understand its audience. They used to do it with subscription surveys and box office intuition. Now they do it with data. The intent is the same: put on work people want to see, make it accessible, and keep the company alive so there’s another season next year.

The companies that handle this well are transparent about data collection, respectful of privacy, and focused on using insights to serve audiences rather than extract maximum revenue from them. There’s a difference, and audiences can tell.

Where this is heading

I think we’ll see every major Australian opera company with a dedicated data and audience insights function within the next three years. The Australia Council for the Arts has been encouraging this through its strategic framework, and funders increasingly want to see evidence-based audience development plans.

For opera lovers, the practical effect should be positive: better-targeted marketing means you hear about performances you’ll actually enjoy. Smarter pricing means more options at more price points. And companies that understand their audiences make better programming decisions.

It’s not romantic. But it might help keep the romance alive.